Weekly Market Update 4/29/23

Happy Saturday!

The mortgage industry has seen a lot of movement in recent weeks. After rising abruptly in the previous two weeks, mortgage rates have fallen nicely to start this week. However, these short-term ups and downs are insignificant when viewed in the context of the bigger picture, where mortgage rates have been locked in a pattern of indecision, waiting for the next significant move.

There is a smaller version of this picture, seen in 10yr Treasury yields, which are highly correlated with mortgages. If Treasuries appear to have been more willing to hang out near the bottom of their range, it is due to a resurgence of concerns over the banking sector, which has caused investors to seek cover in the safest of havens. Reports suggest that it is only a matter of time before First Republic Bank officially fails.

When banks fail, another bank or financial firm acts as a trustee to minimize the amount of FDIC's insurance payout. This involves selling the bank's assets, including billions in mortgage-backed securities in some cases. This causes an increase in the supply of bonds, leading to lower prices and ultimately higher rates.

The present market limbo is a reflection of the present inflation limbo, which has been more persistent than many fans of low rates expected. The PCE price index released this week showed that PCE prices were close to expectations but far from looking eager to return to target levels. This, along with separate data showing lower Pending Home Sales, suggests that the housing market is also in a state of limbo and not necessarily eager for a sharp rebound.

Next week will bring more significant economic data, including the latest rate decision from the Fed. While another 0.25% rate hike is all but certain, there will be an even more intense focus on data to determine if that's the ceiling until further notice. The jobs report on Friday and the Consumer Price Index release on Wednesday could go a long way toward challenging the sideways pattern in rates, but only if they both send the same message.

Overall, it seems that the mortgage industry is waiting for a significant shift in either direction. With inflation being the key factor, market participants will be watching closely to see if the upcoming data releases provide any indication of what's to come. Until then, it seems that we'll be stuck in a state of limbo, waiting for the next big move.